🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Ham-Kam 4-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.70 xG and Ham-Kam 1.16 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ham-Kam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Ham-Kam attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Ham-Kam 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights