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Fredrikstad cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.25 xG and Fredrikstad 1.50 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.28 against Fredrikstad attack 0.83 / defence 0.68, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 31% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 42%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Fredrikstad's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.26 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fredrikstad win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights