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Dominant Brann run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Sarpsborg 08 FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-4 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.71 xG and Brann 1.24 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Brann outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Brann attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 24% | Brann 28%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%, Brann 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Brann's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights