Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 2 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 2W 1D 3L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 3.00. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's away record: 0W 2D 3L from 5 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Sarpsborg 08 FF's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Aalesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 82%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 27% versus Aalesund 91%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 36% | Aalesund 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.44 xG and Aalesund 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.686 / defence 0.957 | Aalesund attack 0.887 / defence 1.680. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.319. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.680 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 11 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 27% | Aalesund 29%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Aalesund 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 17% | Aalesund 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 27% | Aalesund 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.44 / Aalesund 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.686 / def 0.957 | Aalesund attack 0.887 / def 1.680 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Aalesund xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 2 August 2020 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 44% chance of winning, Aalesund a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.89x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.72
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.56
1.12
Aalesund xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.12 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 2D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 0.55 PPG from 11 outings (1W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.40 points per game from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.45 scored and 3.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Aalesund in 91%.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Aalesund away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.40 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Aalesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Aalesund in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 2 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
Draws
2
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Aalesund have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Aalesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 20%, Aalesund 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 60% (Aalesund).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 80% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 60% of Aalesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Aalesund 4-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.44 xG and Aalesund 1.12 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aalesund landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.69 / defence 0.96 against Aalesund attack 0.89 / defence 1.68, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 27% | Aalesund 29%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 36%, Aalesund 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aalesund's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.