Sandefjord 0-3 Viking – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 9 as Sandefjord welcome Viking to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord at Jotun Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Viking have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.30 (Viking). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 3 for Viking and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 3–4 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Viking in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 62% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 73% | Viking 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.80 xG and Viking 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.373 / defence 0.820 | Viking attack 0.980 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.521. Sandefjord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Sandefjord games / 38 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 51% | Draw 23% | Viking 26%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Viking 3.85. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 60% | Viking 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 51% | Draw 23% | Viking 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Sandefjord 1.80 / Viking 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.373 / def 0.820 | Viking attack 0.980 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Viking xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Viking kick off?
Sandefjord vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Viking?
Sandefjord 0 - 3 Viking.
Where is Sandefjord vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Viking part of?
Sandefjord vs Viking is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 51% chance of winning, Viking a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sandefjord and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
Record (5 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Viking 3W.
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Viking (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.32
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.02
1.22
Viking xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.22 for Viking, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 13D 33L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.55 PPG from 60 outings (27W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 8W 11D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.37 points per game from 30 outings (12W 5D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.82 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Viking in 68%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while Viking have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.17 PPG; Viking away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2024, when Viking won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Viking specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Viking have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Viking 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 70%, Viking at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sandefjord and 67% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sandefjord's games and 67% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sandefjord's matches and 67% of Viking's.
Do Sandefjord and Viking tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Viking in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sandefjord 0-3 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.80 xG and Viking 1.22 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Viking outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.37 / defence 0.82 against Viking attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 51% | Draw 23% | Viking 26%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 73%, Viking 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.