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Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Valerenga 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandefjord beat Valerenga 2-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.67 xG and Valerenga 0.85 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.15 / defence 0.77 against Valerenga attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 35/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 55% | Draw 28% | Valerenga 17%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 62%, Valerenga 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandefjord's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Valerenga's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.16 PPG, Valerenga 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights