Sandefjord 2-2 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Start at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Start fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sandefjord Arena plays host to Sandefjord versus Start in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 21 June 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 0.74 xG and Start 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.983 / defence 1.150 | Start attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.651 / away 1.478. Data: 1 Sandefjord games / 1 Start games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 19% | Draw 27% | Start 54%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Start 1.85. Start hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Start as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Start if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 19% | Draw 27% | Start 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Sandefjord 0.74 / Start 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.983 / def 1.150 | Start attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.651 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Start (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Start xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Start kick off?
Sandefjord vs Start kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 June 2020 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Start?
Sandefjord 2 - 2 Start.
Where is Sandefjord vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Start part of?
Sandefjord vs Start is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 19% chance of winning, Start a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Start the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Start?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sandefjord and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Start?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Start in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.98x the league average against Start's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Start's attack (0.85x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Start Win
19%
5.25
27%
3.72
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.18
1.45
Start xG
5.25
19%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
4%
22.27
26%
3.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 16.3 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Start expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.45 for Start, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Start?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Pre-Season
Start
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Start?
From 2 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Start have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Start last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2020, when Start 0-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Start?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sandefjord and Start share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Sandefjord and Start drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 0.74 xG and Start 1.45 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Start attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 19% | Draw 27% | Start 54%, with Start to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.