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Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandefjord beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.60 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.90 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.49 / defence 0.68 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.04 / defence 0.66, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 54% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 21%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 64%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandefjord's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.32 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights