Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sandefjord welcome Rosenborg to Jotun Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sandefjord — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Sandefjord have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rosenborg stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sandefjord carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Sandefjord have won 2, Rosenborg 4, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2025, ended Sandefjord 1–1 Rosenborg — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 60% versus Rosenborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 65% | Rosenborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.829 / defence 0.990 | Rosenborg attack 0.801 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.298. Data: built from Sandefjord's last 34 games and Rosenborg's last 34.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 47% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.11 | Draw 3.77 | Rosenborg 3.83. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sandefjord 30% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 5 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 47% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sandefjord 1.48 / Rosenborg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.829 / def 0.990 | Rosenborg attack 0.801 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Rosenborg xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandefjord vs Rosenborg FAQs
What time does Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Sandefjord 0 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg part of?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 5) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 47% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sandefjord and Rosenborg will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sandefjord vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.83x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sandefjord's last 34 games and Rosenborg's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.77
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.51
1.03
Rosenborg xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
6%
16.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandefjord vs Rosenborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.03 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 24W 10D 26L from 60 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 19L across 60 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.37 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 18W 3D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.62 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
Sandefjord (Home) vs Rosenborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandefjord
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Sandefjord vs Rosenborg Form FAQs
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 24W 10D 26L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Rosenborg away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.90 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 May 2022, when Rosenborg won Rosenborg 3-0 Sandefjord.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
4
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandefjord vs Rosenborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandefjord have won 2, Rosenborg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Rosenborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Rosenborg 1-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 47%, Rosenborg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Sandefjord and 67% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Rosenborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandefjord vs Rosenborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandefjord and Rosenborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 53% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sandefjord and Rosenborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Sandefjord's matches and 67% of Rosenborg's.
Do Sandefjord and Rosenborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 87% of Rosenborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Sandefjord and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.83 / defence 0.99 against Rosenborg attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 47% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 26%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 65%, Rosenborg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.37 PPG, Rosenborg 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.