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Sandefjord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rosenborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandefjord beat Rosenborg 2-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.18 xG and Rosenborg 1.02 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rosenborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.36 / defence 0.81 against Rosenborg attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 63% | Draw 20% | Rosenborg 16%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 66%, Rosenborg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandefjord's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Rosenborg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights