🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Sandefjord run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Kristiansund BK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandefjord beat Kristiansund BK 6-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.01 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.92 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kristiansund BK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.26 / defence 0.76 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 63% | Draw 21% | Kristiansund BK 16%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 63%, Kristiansund BK 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandefjord's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.28 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights