Sandefjord 1-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jotun Arena plays host to Sandefjord versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Jotun Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.
Kristiansund BK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sandefjord, 3 for Kristiansund BK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sandefjord half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Kristiansund BK half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 74% and Kristiansund BK 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 68% | Kristiansund BK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.88 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.208 / defence 1.245 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.680 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.324. Data: 48 Sandefjord games / 17 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 55% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 22%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Kristiansund BK 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 70% | Kristiansund BK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 55% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Sandefjord 1.88 / Kristiansund BK 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.208 / def 1.245 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.680 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Kristiansund BK xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Sandefjord 1 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 55% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK?
Record (5 meetings): Sandefjord 2W | Draws 0 | Kristiansund BK 3W.
What form are Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.21x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.68x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 48/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.45
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.00
1.12
Kristiansund BK xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
3%
29.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.12 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 5W 5D 9L from 19 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 7L across 19 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.26 for Kristiansund BK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 5W 1D 4L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 2W 3D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.32 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Kristiansund BK in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.60 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 6-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
1
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sandefjord 2-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 70%, Kristiansund BK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Sandefjord and 40% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sandefjord's games and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Sandefjord's matches and 40% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Kristiansund BK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Kristiansund BK 1-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.88 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.12 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.21 / defence 1.25 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.68 / defence 1.05, drawn from 48/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 55% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 22%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 68%, Kristiansund BK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.05 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.