Sandefjord 0-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Sandefjord Arena to face Sandefjord in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 June 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.37 xG and Haugesund 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.991 / defence 1.203 | Haugesund attack 0.785 / defence 1.619. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.583. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.619 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Sandefjord games / 3 Haugesund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 57% | Draw 19% | Haugesund 24%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.75 | Draw 5.26 | Haugesund 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 57% | Draw 19% | Haugesund 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 70% | xG Sandefjord 2.37 / Haugesund 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.991 / def 1.203 | Haugesund attack 0.785 / def 1.619 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Haugesund xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Haugesund kick off?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 June 2020 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Sandefjord 0 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Sandefjord vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Haugesund part of?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 57% chance of winning, Haugesund a 24% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sandefjord and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.99) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.79x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
57%
1.75
19%
5.16
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.86
1.50
Haugesund xG
1.75
57%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
9%
10.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
2%
45.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.50 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Pre-Season
Haugesund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Sandefjord 0-1 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.37 xG and Haugesund 1.50 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Haugesund attack 0.79 / defence 1.62, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 57% | Draw 19% | Haugesund 24%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Haugesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.