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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sandefjord and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Sandefjord and Ham-Kam drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.50 xG and Ham-Kam 0.96 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.77 / defence 0.82 against Ham-Kam attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 49% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 58%, Ham-Kam 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandefjord's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.55 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights