Sandefjord 1-2 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 12 as Sandefjord welcome Ham-Kam to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 27 June 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Jotun Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ham-Kam — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.10 (Ham-Kam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sandefjord register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ham-Kam in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ham-Kam, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Sandefjord.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Ham-Kam winning.
It is worth noting that Ham-Kam have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 62% versus Ham-Kam 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 73% | Ham-Kam 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.60 xG and Ham-Kam 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.144 / defence 0.947 | Ham-Kam attack 0.936 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.522. Data: 41 Sandefjord games / 42 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 32%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Sandefjord 1.60 / Ham-Kam 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.144 / def 0.947 | Ham-Kam attack 0.936 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Ham-Kam xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 27 June 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Sandefjord 1 - 2 Ham-Kam.
Where is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam part of?
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 43% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sandefjord and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
Record (4 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 4W.
What form are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
43%
2.30
24%
4.12
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.95
1.35
Ham-Kam xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
6%
15.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.35 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 14W 13D 33L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Ham-Kam's form line: 16W 17D 27L from 60 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 0.92 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (8W 11D 11L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 6W 8D 16L from 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.20 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 16W 17D 27L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Ham-Kam away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.17 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Ham-Kam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
2
Draws
6
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 70%, Ham-Kam at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sandefjord and 63% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sandefjord's games and 67% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sandefjord's matches and 63% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Sandefjord and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ham-Kam defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Sandefjord 1-2 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.60 xG and Ham-Kam 1.35 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Ham-Kam attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 43% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 32%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 73%, Ham-Kam 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 0.92 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.