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Dominant Brann run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sandefjord.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Sandefjord 0-3 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.10 xG and Brann 1.35 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Brann outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.28 / defence 0.85 against Brann attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 54% | Draw 22% | Brann 24%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Brann win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 68%, Brann 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandefjord's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Brann's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights