Rosenborg 3-0 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Thursday 30 July 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 2W 2D 1L this season (5 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Viking have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Rosenborg, 1.10 for Viking — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 40% versus Viking 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 50% | Viking 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.72 xG and Viking 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.974 / defence 0.986 | Viking attack 0.695 / defence 1.437. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.330. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.437 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Rosenborg games / 10 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 56% | Draw 24% | Viking 20%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Viking 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 60% | Viking 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Jul 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 56% | Draw 24% | Viking 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Rosenborg 1.72 / Viking 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.974 / def 0.986 | Viking attack 0.695 / def 1.437 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Viking xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Viking kick off?
Rosenborg vs Viking kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 30 July 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Rosenborg 3 - 0 Viking.
Where is Rosenborg vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Viking part of?
Rosenborg vs Viking is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 56% chance of winning, Viking a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rosenborg and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Viking (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Viking's attack (0.69x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.16
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.64
0.91
Viking xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
3%
28.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.91 for Viking, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 3D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.10 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.30 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Viking have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Viking away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.60 PPG; Viking away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Viking in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 1-5 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
2
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 4, Viking have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Viking 3-0 Rosenborg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Viking 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Rosenborg and 60% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Viking in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 40% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of Viking's.
Do Rosenborg and Viking tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Viking in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Viking 3-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.72 xG and Viking 0.91 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Viking landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Viking attack 0.69 / defence 1.44, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 56% | Draw 24% | Viking 20%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 50%, Viking 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Viking's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.50 PPG, Viking 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.