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Rosenborg and Viking share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Rosenborg and Viking drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.18 xG and Viking 1.32 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.84 / defence 0.67 against Viking attack 1.39 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 33% | Draw 27% | Viking 40%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 65%, Viking 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.53 PPG, Viking 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights