Rosenborg 5-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 1L across 6 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lerkendal Stadion.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.40 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Rosenborg 42% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 25%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 58% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.57 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.029 / defence 0.880 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.768 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.326. Data: 12 Rosenborg games / 12 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 53% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 21%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.76. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 53% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Rosenborg 1.57 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.029 / def 0.880 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.768 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 9 August 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Rosenborg 5 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 53% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.03) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.77x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.95
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.47
0.90
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
4%
22.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.90 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 5W 3D 4L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 4W 2D 6L from 12 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.17 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 25%.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.00 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
3
Draws
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Rosenborg and 60% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 40% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 5-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.57 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.90 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.77 / defence 1.15, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 53% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 21%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 58%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.50 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.