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Rosenborg and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rosenborg and Sandefjord finished level at 1-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.85 xG and Sandefjord 1.49 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Sandefjord attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 46% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 30%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 58%, Sandefjord 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rosenborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Sandefjord's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.60 PPG, Sandefjord 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights