Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 29 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Molde have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Molde are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Rosenborg 3W, Molde 3W, 4D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2026, ended 2–1 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Season Stats
The hosts have accumulated 3W 3D 6L from their 12 Eliteserien appearances this term. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / – (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 12 games (8%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 1 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game.
Molde's full-season record stands at 6W 2D 4L from 12 games. Their scoring output is 1.7 per match with 1.3 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 0-1 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 12 games (17%). Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.
Molde have been the more prolific side this season at 1.70 goals per game compared to 1.00 for the hosts. Rosenborg have been awarded 2 penalties this season (1 scored).
Current Standings
In the Eliteserien table, Molde sit 5th on 20 points, 8 places and 8 points ahead of Rosenborg in 13th.
At home this season, Rosenborg have gone 3W 2D 2L. On the road, Molde's record stands at 1W 2D 3L this term.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Molde — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 45% versus Molde 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 48% | Molde 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.86 xG and Molde 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.095 / defence 0.988 | Molde attack 0.965 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.164. Data: 42 Rosenborg games / 42 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 55% | Draw 23% | Molde 22%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Molde 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Molde (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Molde 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Manager edge: Molde led by P. Høgmo • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Rosenborg 3W | Draws 4 | Molde 3W • Goals trend: 2.90 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Rosenborg 14 – 15 Molde • H2H markets: BTTS 80% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: Rosenborg 30% / Draw 40% / Molde 30% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 55% / draw 23% / away 22% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.90 goals/game (60% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.97 (57% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 80%, Poisson BTTS probability 57% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W • Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D • Rosenborg home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • Molde away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | CS 2 • Form edge: Molde lead by 0.50 PPG (1.70 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Rosenborg): Poisson xG of 1.86 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Molde): Poisson xG of 1.11 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.97 (57% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 57% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Molde on PPG but Poisson rates Rosenborg higher (55% vs 22% for Molde) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 55% | Draw 23% | Molde 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Rosenborg 1.86 / Molde 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.095 / def 0.988 | Molde attack 0.965 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Molde xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Molde kick off?
Rosenborg vs Molde is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Molde part of?
Rosenborg vs Molde is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 55% chance of winning, Molde a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rosenborg and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Molde?
• Record (10 meetings): Rosenborg 3W | Draws 4 | Molde 3W • Goals trend: 2.90 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Rosenborg 14 – 15 Molde • H2H markets: BTTS 80% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: Rosenborg 30% / Draw 40% / Molde 30% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 55% / draw 23% / away 22% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.90 goals/game (60% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.97 (57% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 80%, Poisson BTTS probability 57% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Rosenborg and Molde in?
• Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W • Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D • Rosenborg home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • Molde away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | CS 2 • Form edge: Molde lead by 0.50 PPG (1.70 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Rosenborg): Poisson xG of 1.86 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Molde): Poisson xG of 1.11 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.97 (57% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 57% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Molde on PPG but Poisson rates Rosenborg higher (55% vs 22% for Molde) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Rosenborg vs Molde?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture