🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Rosenborg and Molde drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.70 xG and Molde 0.97 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Molde landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.95 / defence 0.81 against Molde attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 54% | Draw 24% | Molde 21%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 65%, Molde 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.53 PPG, Molde 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights