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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK finished level at 1-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.43 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.98 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.81 / defence 0.72 against Kristiansund BK attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 48% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 26%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 66%, Kristiansund BK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rosenborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights