Rosenborg 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Haugesund travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 5W 3D 1L this season (9 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Rosenborg are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 53% versus Haugesund 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 65% | Haugesund 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.88 xG and Haugesund 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.216 / defence 1.020 | Haugesund attack 0.642 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.440. Data: 17 Rosenborg games / 17 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 59% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 18%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Haugesund 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 67% | Haugesund 38%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 59% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Rosenborg 1.88 / Haugesund 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.216 / def 1.020 | Haugesund attack 0.642 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Haugesund xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Haugesund kick off?
Rosenborg vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 September 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Rosenborg 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Rosenborg vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Haugesund part of?
Rosenborg vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 59% chance of winning, Haugesund a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rosenborg and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Haugesund in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.22) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.50
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.82
0.94
Haugesund xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
15%
6.54
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
3%
35.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.94 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 5D 4L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rosenborg's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.06 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Haugesund away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.12 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Haugesund in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Rosenborg
3
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 6, Haugesund have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 75%, Haugesund 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Rosenborg and 38% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 38%; Haugesund in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Rosenborg's games and 38% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Rosenborg's matches and 38% of Haugesund's.
Do Rosenborg and Haugesund tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Haugesund 2-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.88 xG and Haugesund 0.94 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.22 / defence 1.02 against Haugesund attack 0.64 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 59% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 18%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 65%, Haugesund 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.