Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Ham-Kam.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 5 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Rosenborg's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Rosenborg, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Ham-Kam — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–4 with Ham-Kam winning.
The historical record gives Rosenborg a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 46% versus Ham-Kam 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 52% | Ham-Kam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.25 xG and Ham-Kam 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.254 / defence 0.836 | Ham-Kam attack 0.846 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Rosenborg games / 48 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 65% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 15%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Ham-Kam 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 65% | Draw 19% | Ham-Kam 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG Rosenborg 2.25 / Ham-Kam 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.254 / def 0.836 | Ham-Kam attack 0.846 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ham-Kam xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam part of?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 65% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rosenborg and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Record (8 meetings): Rosenborg 5W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.85x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.24
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.26
1.00
Ham-Kam xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
11%
9.52
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
2%
61.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.00 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 18W 12D 18L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 16W 12D 20L from 48 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.25 for Ham-Kam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 1.83 PPG from 24 outings (12W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 4W 7D 13L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ham-Kam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.42 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 18W 12D 18L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Ham-Kam away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.83 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
1
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 4-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 54%, Ham-Kam 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Rosenborg) and 62% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ham-Kam in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 46% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Rosenborg's recent games and 62% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.