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Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Fredrikstad 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rosenborg beat Fredrikstad 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.59 xG and Fredrikstad 1.06 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fredrikstad landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Fredrikstad attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 50% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 25%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 63%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.77 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights