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Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bryne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rosenborg beat Bryne 3-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.61 xG and Bryne 0.92 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bryne landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.79 / defence 0.71 against Bryne attack 0.94 / defence 1.30, drawn from 35/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 52% | Draw 28% | Bryne 20%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights