Rosenborg 3-2 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rosenborg at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Aalesund meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 August 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rosenborg have posted 4W 2D 1L at Lerkendal Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aalesund (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund away from home this season: 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Rosenborg's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Aalesund's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 85%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 46% and Aalesund 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 62% | Aalesund 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.92 xG and Aalesund 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.231 / defence 0.884 | Aalesund attack 0.785 / defence 1.758. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.371. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.758 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Rosenborg games / 13 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 77% | Draw 13% | Aalesund 9%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.30 | Draw 7.69 | Aalesund 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 57% | Aalesund 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 77% | Draw 13% | Aalesund 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 58% | xG Rosenborg 2.92 / Aalesund 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.231 / def 0.884 | Aalesund attack 0.785 / def 1.758 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.92
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Aalesund xG
58%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Aalesund kick off?
Rosenborg vs Aalesund kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 16 August 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Rosenborg 3 - 2 Aalesund.
Where is Rosenborg vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Aalesund part of?
Rosenborg vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 77% chance of winning, Aalesund a 9% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rosenborg and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Aalesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Aalesund in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.23) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.76), the model arrives at 2.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.79x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
77%
1.29
13%
7.48
9%
10.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.92
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.87
0.95
Aalesund xG
1.29
77%
Home win
7.48
13%
Draw
10.81
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
5%
18.54
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.95 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 6W 3D 4L from 13 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 8L across 13 games — 0.54 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Aalesund's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.38 scored and 3.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 85%.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 1W 4D 8L in their last 13 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Aalesund away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.17 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Aalesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Aalesund in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
1
Draws
2
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 4, Aalesund have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-3 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Aalesund?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Rosenborg, 67% for Aalesund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Rosenborg and 67% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Aalesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rosenborg's games and 67% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Rosenborg's matches and 67% of Aalesund's.
Do Rosenborg and Aalesund tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Aalesund 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Aalesund 3-2 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.92 xG and Aalesund 0.95 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Aalesund outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.23 / defence 0.88 against Aalesund attack 0.79 / defence 1.76, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 77% | Draw 13% | Aalesund 9%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 62%, Aalesund 85%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Aalesund's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.54. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.