ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 48%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Rosenborg travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024, 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Skagerak Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rosenborg are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rosenborg, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for ODD Ballklubb.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Rosenborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rosenborg have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 55% versus Rosenborg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 53% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.85 xG and Rosenborg 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.865 / defence 1.124 | Rosenborg attack 0.988 / defence 1.417. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.288. Rosenborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.417 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 ODD Ballklubb games / 49 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 48% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 30%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Rosenborg 3.33. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 48% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.85 / Rosenborg 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.865 / def 1.124 | Rosenborg attack 0.988 / def 1.417 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Rosenborg xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 48% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
Record (9 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 2 | Rosenborg 6W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.86x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.43
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.29
1.43
Rosenborg xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
5%
21.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.43 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 14W 14D 21L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg's form line: 19W 9D 21L from 49 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.14 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (8W 8D 8L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 5W 5D 14L from 24 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.53 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 19W 9D 21L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Rosenborg away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.33 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
2
Draws
7
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Rosenborg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 58%, Rosenborg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for ODD Ballklubb and 75% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 67% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 75% of Rosenborg's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat ODD Ballklubb 1-3 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.85 xG and Rosenborg 1.43 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.86 / defence 1.12 against Rosenborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.42, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 48% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 30%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 53%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.14 PPG, Rosenborg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.