ODD Ballklubb 1-3 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KFUM Oslo at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 24 as ODD Ballklubb welcome KFUM Oslo to Skagerak Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 3W 3D 4L at Skagerak Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
KFUM Oslo — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KFUM Oslo's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. KFUM Oslo are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for ODD Ballklubb, 0 for KFUM Oslo and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
KFUM Oslo in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 52% versus KFUM Oslo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 48% | KFUM Oslo 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.13 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.815 / defence 1.126 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.845 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.219. Data: 53 ODD Ballklubb games / 23 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 37%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | KFUM Oslo 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KFUM Oslo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: ODD Ballklubb 60% | KFUM Oslo 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.13 / KFUM Oslo 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.815 / def 1.126 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.845 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.16
KFUM Oslo xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 3 KFUM Oslo.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 35% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and KFUM Oslo?
Record (1 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 1 | KFUM Oslo 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and KFUM Oslo in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.81) and KFUM Oslo's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KFUM Oslo's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.52
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.29
1.16
KFUM Oslo xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.16 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 7D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (7W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 0.96 PPG, KFUM Oslo on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 3W 4D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 1.64 points per game from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KFUM Oslo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.17 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 7W 9D 7L in their last 23 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or KFUM Oslo away?
KFUM Oslo's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.18 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.64 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and KFUM Oslo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and KFUM Oslo?
From 2 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 0, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and KFUM Oslo?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 64%, KFUM Oslo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (ODD Ballklubb) and 46% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play KFUM Oslo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 54% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 46% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KFUM Oslo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat ODD Ballklubb 1-3 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.13 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.16 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. KFUM Oslo outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.84 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 37%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 48%, KFUM Oslo 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 0.96 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KFUM Oslo win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.