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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sandefjord cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Molde.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandefjord beat Molde 1-3 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.10 xG and Sandefjord 1.17 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Molde fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sandefjord outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.10 / defence 0.90 against Sandefjord attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Molde 59% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 20%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Sandefjord win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 64%, Sandefjord 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Molde's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Sandefjord's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Molde 1.49 PPG, Sandefjord 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights