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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as KFUM Oslo defy the odds to beat Molde 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KFUM Oslo beat Molde 2-3 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.16 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.99 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KFUM Oslo outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.74 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Molde 39% | Draw 31% | KFUM Oslo 30%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual KFUM Oslo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 70%, KFUM Oslo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Molde's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with KFUM Oslo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Molde (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights