🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Molde at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Molde vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Fredrikstad make the trip to Aker Stadion to face Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Molde (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Fredrikstad have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fredrikstad's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Molde's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Molde lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2025, ended 2–4 with Fredrikstad winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Molde half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 51% versus Fredrikstad 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 63% | Fredrikstad 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.49 xG and Fredrikstad 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.006 / defence 0.791 | Fredrikstad attack 0.767 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.359. Molde's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Molde games / 49 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Molde 52% | Draw 27% | Fredrikstad 20%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Fredrikstad 5.00. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Molde 40% | Fredrikstad 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights