Mjondalen 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 2 as Mjondalen welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Consto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 June 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 0.71 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.986 / defence 1.150 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.626 / away 1.868. Data: 1 Mjondalen games / 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 11% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 9.09 | Draw 3.57 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (61%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 11% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Mjondalen 0.71 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.986 / def 1.150 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.626 / away 1.868 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 June 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Mjondalen 1 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 11% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 61% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
11%
9.21
28%
3.55
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.54
1.83
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
9.21
11%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
16%
6.21
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
2%
57.17
30%
3.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.83 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Pre-Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjondalen's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mjondalen
1
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 1, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 28 November 2021, when Mjondalen 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Mjondalen defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 0.71 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.83 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 11% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Mjondalen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.