Mjondalen 0-2 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ODD Ballklubb make the trip to Consto Arena to face Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Mjondalen (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's home record at Consto Arena: 1W 0D 3L from 4 Eliteserien appearances (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
ODD Ballklubb have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 0D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, ODD Ballklubb are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 60% versus ODD Ballklubb 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 50% | ODD Ballklubb 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.10 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.846 / defence 1.149 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.970 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.335. Data: 10 Mjondalen games / 10 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 28% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 46%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | ODD Ballklubb 2.17. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mjondalen 50% | ODD Ballklubb 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 28% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Mjondalen 1.10 / ODD Ballklubb 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.846 / def 1.149 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.970 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.49
ODD Ballklubb xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 29 July 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Mjondalen 0 - 2 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 28% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.85) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.97x) against Mjondalen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
28%
3.57
26%
3.87
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.59
1.49
ODD Ballklubb xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
6%
15.81
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.49 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 2W 2D 6L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ODD Ballklubb are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjondalen are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.60 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjondalen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
ODD Ballklubb's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 0.75 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Mjondalen or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjondalen have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 6-1 on 30 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
1
Draws
3
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when ODD Ballklubb 2-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 50%, ODD Ballklubb 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjondalen) and 50% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 25% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjondalen's recent games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Mjondalen 0-2 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.10 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.49 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 28% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 46%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 50%, ODD Ballklubb 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.