Mjondalen 1-2 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kristiansund BK make the trip to Consto Arena to face Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 June 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.32 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.863 / defence 0.963 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.727 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.583. Data: 3 Mjondalen games / 3 Kristiansund BK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 42% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 31%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Kristiansund BK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjondalen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 42% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Mjondalen 1.32 / Kristiansund BK 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.863 / def 0.963 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.727 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Kristiansund BK xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 June 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK?
Mjondalen 1 - 2 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 42% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.86) and Kristiansund BK's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.73x) against Mjondalen's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
42%
2.41
27%
3.67
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.43
1.11
Kristiansund BK xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.11 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Pre-Season
Kristiansund BK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 5-0 on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mjondalen
1
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 1, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2021, when Mjondalen 5-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Kristiansund BK defy the odds to beat Mjondalen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Mjondalen 1-2 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.32 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.11 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kristiansund BK outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.73 / defence 1.04, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 42% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 31%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kristiansund BK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.