Lillestrom 1-4 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lillestrom face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen Stadion plays host to Lillestrom versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Lillestrom (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lillestrom have posted 2W 3D 5L at Åråsen Stadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 1.00 PPG clear of Lillestrom in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Viking in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Viking hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 4–1 with Lillestrom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Viking have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Viking — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 57% versus Viking 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 64% | Viking 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.51 xG and Viking 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.833 / defence 1.179 | Viking attack 1.272 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.219. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Lillestrom games / 53 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 32% | Draw 23% | Viking 45%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | Viking 2.22. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 60% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 32% | Draw 23% | Viking 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Lillestrom 1.51 / Viking 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.833 / def 1.179 | Viking attack 1.272 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Viking (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Viking xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Viking kick off?
Lillestrom vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Viking?
Lillestrom 1 - 4 Viking.
Where is Lillestrom vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Viking part of?
Lillestrom vs Viking is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 32% chance of winning, Viking a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lillestrom and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Viking?
Record (7 meetings): Lillestrom 2W | Draws 0 | Viking 5W.
What form are Lillestrom and Viking in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.27x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
32%
3.11
23%
4.43
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.34
1.83
Viking xG
3.11
32%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
5%
19.38
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.83 for Viking, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 19W 7D 27L from 53 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 29W 11D 13L across 53 games — 1.85 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lillestrom heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 11W 4D 11L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 11W 6D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.94 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Viking in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 19W 7D 27L in their last 53 games (1.21 PPG), while Viking have gone 29W 11D 13L in their last 53 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.42 PPG; Viking away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
0
Draws
7
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Viking?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 2, Viking have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 65%, Viking 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Lillestrom and 62% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Lillestrom's games and 54% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Lillestrom's matches and 62% of Viking's.
Do Lillestrom and Viking tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Lillestrom 1-4 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.51 xG and Viking 1.83 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Viking outscored their 1.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Viking attack 1.27 / defence 1.12, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 32% | Draw 23% | Viking 45%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 64%, Viking 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Lillestrom (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.