Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Åråsen in Eliteserien (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Lillestrom's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Lillestrom have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Lillestrom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sarpsborg 08 FF are 1.20 PPG clear of Lillestrom over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Lillestrom's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) — Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Sarpsborg 08 FF edge it 4 wins to 3, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jul 2024, ended Lillestrom 2–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 53% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lillestrom surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Sarpsborg 08 FF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.24 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.812 / defence 1.203 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.971 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.218. Lillestrom's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output up. Data: built from Lillestrom's last 6 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 36.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 32% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.14 | Draw 3.57 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Lillestrom's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lillestrom 60% (last 10 home games) | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 7 | Venue: Åråsen • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 32% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Lillestrom 1.24 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.812 / def 1.203 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.971 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF FAQs
What time does Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Åråsen.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Lillestrom 4 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 7) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 32% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (0.81) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.97x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from Lillestrom's last 6 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
32%
3.14
28%
3.57
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.67
1.42
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
8%
13.02
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.42 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 7W 3D 20L from 30 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 11L across 30 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sarpsborg 08 FF by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lillestrom heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 3W 3D 9L from their last 15 home games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across their last 15 away games, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lillestrom are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.60 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 63%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Lillestrom (Home) vs Sarpsborg 08 FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Form FAQs
What form are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 7W 3D 20L in their last 30 games (0.80 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 0.80 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Lillestrom
1
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Lillestrom have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 53%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lillestrom and 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom have failed to score in 40% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Lillestrom's games and 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lillestrom's matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 at Åråsen, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.24 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.42 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 32% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 70%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Lillestrom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.