Lillestrom 3-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen Stadion plays host to Lillestrom versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 19 June 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Lillestrom's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Åråsen Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Åråsen Stadion.
Rosenborg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Lillestrom, 0 for Rosenborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 63% and Rosenborg 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 60% | Rosenborg 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.49 xG and Rosenborg 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.080 / defence 0.512 | Rosenborg attack 1.066 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.449. Lillestrom's defence rating of 0.512 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Lillestrom games / 39 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 54% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 20%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 5.00. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lillestrom 40% | Rosenborg 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 54% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Lillestrom 1.49 / Rosenborg 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.080 / def 0.512 | Rosenborg attack 1.066 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Rosenborg xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kick off?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Lillestrom 3 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg part of?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 54% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lillestrom and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
Record (2 meetings): Lillestrom 2W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Rosenborg in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.07x) against Lillestrom's defence (0.51x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.80
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.28
0.79
Rosenborg xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
4%
22.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.79 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 14W 7D 9L from 30 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 8L across 30 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Lillestrom against 1.60 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 8W 3D 4L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.93 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 games (1.63 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Rosenborg away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.80 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
1
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, Rosenborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 47%, Rosenborg 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Lillestrom and 73% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Lillestrom's games and 80% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Lillestrom's matches and 73% of Rosenborg's.
Do Lillestrom and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Rosenborg 3-1 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.49 xG and Rosenborg 0.79 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.08 / defence 0.51 against Rosenborg attack 1.07 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 54% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 20%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 60%, Rosenborg 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.63 PPG, Rosenborg 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.