Lillestrom 1-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen Stadion plays host to Lillestrom versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Åråsen Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rosenborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rosenborg arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rosenborg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Lillestrom have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Rosenborg managing just 2 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2024, ended 0–4 with Rosenborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lillestrom and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 57% and Rosenborg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 65% | Rosenborg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.81 xG and Rosenborg 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.905 / defence 1.252 | Rosenborg attack 1.120 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.263. Rosenborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Lillestrom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Lillestrom games / 51 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 40% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 38%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Rosenborg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Lillestrom dominate the H2H record, yet Rosenborg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 60% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 40% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Lillestrom 1.81 / Rosenborg 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.905 / def 1.252 | Rosenborg attack 1.120 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Rosenborg xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kick off?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Lillestrom 1 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg part of?
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 40% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Lillestrom and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
Record (7 meetings): Lillestrom 5W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 2W.
What form are Lillestrom and Rosenborg in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.12x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
40%
2.52
22%
4.55
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.58
1.77
Rosenborg xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
7%
14.81
6%
15.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.77 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 19W 6D 26L from 51 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 21L across 51 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Lillestrom against 1.41 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 11W 3D 11L from 25 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 6W 5D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.57 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 19W 6D 26L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 21W 9D 21L in their last 51 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Rosenborg away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.44 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
1
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, Rosenborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Rosenborg?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Lillestrom, 68% for Rosenborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Lillestrom and 76% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lillestrom's games and 68% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Lillestrom's matches and 76% of Rosenborg's.
Do Lillestrom and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Lillestrom and Rosenborg drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.81 xG and Rosenborg 1.77 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Rosenborg attack 1.12 / defence 1.31, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 40% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 38%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 65%, Rosenborg 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.24 PPG, Rosenborg 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.