🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kristiansund BK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valerenga beat Kristiansund BK 0-2 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.61 xG and Valerenga 0.99 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Valerenga outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Valerenga attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 52% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 23%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Valerenga win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 47%, Valerenga 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Valerenga's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.16 PPG, Valerenga 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights