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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kristiansund BK edge out Stromsgodset 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kristiansund BK beat Stromsgodset 2-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.70 xG and Stromsgodset 1.56 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.85 / defence 1.13 against Stromsgodset attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 41% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 35%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 53%, Stromsgodset 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Stromsgodset's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.14 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights