Kristiansund BK 3-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord meet at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 29 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kristiansund BK's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 1W 2D 1L at Kristiansund Stadion — 1.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandefjord have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Kristiansund BK, 1.00 for Sandefjord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Sandefjord in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Kristiansund BK — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 80% and Sandefjord 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 70% | Sandefjord 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.07 xG and Sandefjord 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.226 / defence 1.150 | Sandefjord attack 0.692 / defence 1.426. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.335. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.426 — this is suppressing Kristiansund BK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Kristiansund BK games / 10 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 61% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 19%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Sandefjord 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kristiansund BK are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 75% | Sandefjord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 61% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.07 / Sandefjord 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.226 / def 1.150 | Sandefjord attack 0.692 / def 1.426 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sandefjord xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 29 July 2020 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Kristiansund BK 3 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 61% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.69x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.83
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.13
1.06
Sandefjord xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
13%
7.94
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
2%
42.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.06 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 2W 6D 2L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord's form line: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.00 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Sandefjord away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.25 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 6-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Sandefjord have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sandefjord 2-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 75%, Sandefjord 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Kristiansund BK and 50% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kristiansund BK's games and 50% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 50% of Sandefjord's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Sandefjord 3-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.07 xG and Sandefjord 1.06 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kristiansund BK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.23 / defence 1.15 against Sandefjord attack 0.69 / defence 1.43, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 61% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 19%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 70%, Sandefjord 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.20 PPG, Sandefjord 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.