🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.32 xG and Sandefjord 1.17 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sandefjord outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.75 / defence 1.08 against Sandefjord attack 0.80 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 39% | Draw 29% | Sandefjord 32%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 51%, Sandefjord 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Sandefjord's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.13 PPG, Sandefjord 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights