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Dominant Kristiansund BK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rosenborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kristiansund BK beat Rosenborg 4-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG and Rosenborg 1.27 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Kristiansund BK beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.67 / defence 0.94 against Rosenborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 24% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 47%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Kristiansund BK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 47%, Rosenborg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Rosenborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Kristiansund BK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights