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Ham-Kam cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kristiansund BK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ham-Kam beat Kristiansund BK 1-3 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.35 xG and Ham-Kam 1.13 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Ham-Kam attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 41% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 31%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 51%, Ham-Kam 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.18 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights