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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kristiansund BK and Brann share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kristiansund BK and Brann finished level at 2-2 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.25 xG and Brann 1.76 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Brann attack 1.14 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 27% | Draw 24% | Brann 49%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 50%, Brann 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Brann's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights