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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KFUM Oslo and Viking share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KFUM Oslo and Viking finished level at 2-2 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.51 xG and Viking 1.58 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 1.04 / defence 0.88 against Viking attack 1.30 / defence 0.85, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 36% | Draw 25% | Viking 39%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 46%, Viking 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Viking's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights