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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tromso cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KFUM Oslo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tromso beat KFUM Oslo 1-3 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 2.17 xG and Tromso 1.86 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. KFUM Oslo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Tromso outscored their 1.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 1.07 / defence 1.14 against Tromso attack 1.23 / defence 1.28, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 44% | Draw 23% | Tromso 33%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Tromso win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 43%, Tromso 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Tromso's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.23 PPG, Tromso 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights