KFUM Oslo 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KFUM Oslo at 39%, yet in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
KFUM Oslo (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, KFUM Oslo have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — KFUM Oslo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sarpsborg 08 FF arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from KFUM Oslo's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) — KFUM Oslo have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for KFUM Oslo, 3 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended KFUM Oslo 1–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF — a Sarpsborg 08 FF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KFUM Oslo 58% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 47% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.54 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.953 / defence 1.041 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.113 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.231. Data: built from KFUM Oslo's last 35 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 35.
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 39% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 34%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.57 | Draw 3.70 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.54 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KFUM Oslo at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (KFUM Oslo's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KFUM Oslo 80% (last 10 home games) | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 6 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 39% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG KFUM Oslo 1.54 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.953 / def 1.041 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.113 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF FAQs
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 6) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 39% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (0.95) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.11x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from KFUM Oslo's last 35 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.70
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.96
1.43
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.43 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KFUM Oslo's recent record stands at 17W 21D 22L from 60 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 24L across 60 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.30 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KFUM Oslo have managed 7W 12D 11L from their last 30 home games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 12W 8D 10L across their last 30 away games, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.52 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
KFUM Oslo (Home) vs Sarpsborg 08 FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Form FAQs
What form are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 17W 21D 22L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 1.10 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: KFUM Oslo have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
KFUM Oslo
0
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, KFUM Oslo have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-3 KFUM Oslo.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for KFUM Oslo, 67% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for KFUM Oslo and 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of KFUM Oslo's games and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of KFUM Oslo's matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of KFUM Oslo's recent matches and 77% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KFUM Oslo edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.54 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.43 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 39% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 34%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 47%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.20 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KFUM Oslo win broke the near-deadlock. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.